U.S. exceptionalism seems difficult to dislodge for now
The New York Stock Exchange on November 21, 2024 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
U.S. markets take a breather
The S&P 500 slipped 0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.55% and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.18% as traders await today’s jobs report. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday. India’s Nifty 50 slipped around 0.1% on the country’s interest rate decision, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed roughly 1.3%.
India’s central bank keeps rates
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday left interest rates unchanged at 6.5%, as economists in a Reuters poll had expected. The central bank is balancing India’s high inflation and a slowing economy: year-on-year prices rose 6.21% in October, while the country’s fiscal third-quarter gross domestic product grew by a surprisingly low 5.4% from a year ago.
What to expect from U.S. jobs report
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November is coming out later today. After the shockingly low 12,000 jobs added in October — largely attributed to factors like disruptions from hurricanes and strikes — economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 214,000 jobs in November. The October number could also be revised higher.
Crypto continues riding waves
On Thursday, bitcoin smashed the $100,000 barrier — though it has since retreated from that level to around $98,100. With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement on Thursday that venture investor David Sacks will be the White House’s “A.I. & Crypto Czar,” investor sentiment toward bitcoin might get another boost.
[PRO] Top global picks for 2025
Investment bank Macquarie is bullish on several Asian stocks for the next year. Those companies span sectors from automotive to defense and have a potential upside of at least 50%, according to the bank.
The bottom line
The U.S., in terms of its economy and financial markets, seems to be firing on all cylinders.
Even though major U.S. indexes fell yesterday, when viewed in the context of their performance this week, it looks like a slight pause after achieving a series of record closing levels.
And U.S. stocks could continue notching fresh highs in the future, according to bank analysts.
“As far as the SPX goes, we believe the index will finish 2025 in the 6500 to 6700 range,” Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, wrote in a Wednesday note. Taking the higher end of Wren’s estimate, that implies a 10% upside from Thursday’s close.
If that scenario plays out for the S&P 500, it would mark the third consecutive year of gains for the broad-based index. The S&P has already shot up 27.6% year to date, its second-highest annual increase in the 21st century, according to Deutsche Bank.
The strength of the U.S. stock market is more striking when compared with its European counterpart.
“MAGA policy expectations, coupled with Goldilocks data, have revived animal spirits for US equities. In contrast, Europe remains on the back foot amid stagnant growth, tariff threats and political crisis in France,” Barclays wrote on Wednesday. “It is hard to see an end to US exceptionalism any time soon, which we think remains the playbook into 2025.”
The U.S. economy, likewise, isn’t showing signs of flagging. The Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter to hit 3.3% on an annualized basis. That’s a small uptick from its 3.2% estimate earlier this week, and higher than third-quarter growth of 2.8%.
Employment is the engine that powers most aspects of the economy. November’s jobs report, out later today, will give investors more insight into whether U.S. economic and financial growth can continue racing forward.
— CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Lisa Kailai Han and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.