June 9, 2024 Israel-Hamas war

Gone from the war cabinet. Gone from the government. Benny Gantz is back where he was at the start of the war Hamas launched on October 7: an ex-defense minister, ex-chief of staff, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s chief political rival.

You can’t say he didn’t warn us. On May 18, he announced that if Netanyahu didn’t come up with a coherent plan to bring the hostages home and for the governance of post-war Gaza (among other things), then he’d leave the war cabinet by June 8. In light of Saturday’s rescue of four Israeli hostages, he delayed making good on his threat — by a day. 

“Leaving the government is a complex and painful decision,” Gantz said in a news conference on Sunday evening in Israel. But, “Netanyahu prevents us from moving forward to a real victory (in Gaza).”

So what now? The three most pressing areas of interest where Gantz’s resignation may be felt — at least for Israelis, the Palestinians in Gaza, and the outside world — are the Israeli government, the running of the war with Hamas, and Gantz’s own political prospects. 

Perhaps the most important impact of Gantz’s departure is the one it won’t have: it won’t cause the government to collapse.

That’s because Netanyahu and his coalition partners still have 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. So unless President Biden’s — sorry, Israel’s — hostage deal gets done, and Netanyahu’s far-right ministers make good on their threats to leave the government, Netanyahu could safely stay in office until elections are due in October 2026 (opinion polls suggest that if they were held now, Gantz would win).

It remains to be seen what a Gantz-free government means for the Palestinians in Gaza. Gantz is no dove, and his “moderating” hand was unlikely to have resulted in Israel going any “easier” on Hamas, or causing fewer civilian casualties.

But both Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have no qualms about disagreeing publicly with Netanyahu, and they may have been able to call him out if the prime minister were to block a potential hostage deal for personal political reasons. With Gantz gone, that seems less likely — as does the likelihood of a hostage deal being consummated any time soon.