How Trump’s second presidency could bring more drama to Hollywood

Already facing retrenchment and existential concerns about its business model, Hollywood is bracing for more potential volatility from the incoming Trump administration.

While President-elect Donald Trump has not laid out specific plans for the entertainment industry, analysts said his proposed broader policies on global tariffs, as well as the threat of retaliation against companies, could put a chill on Los Angeles’ signature business.

“If I were wealthy today, I would not be buying stock in the entertainment world,” said Stephen Galloway, dean of Chapman University’s Dodge College of Film and Media Arts. “There’s going to be a lot of turbulence.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently proposed upping the annual cap on state film and TV tax credits to $750 million, from its current total of $330 million. He and others have called for the federal government to step in and keep the U.S. competitive in global production.

But it’s unlikely that Trump would throw the film and TV business a lifeline, especially in any way that could help Newsom and deep-blue California.

“Let’s face it, liberal Hollywood is the enemy,” Galloway said. “Even though this is a guy who made his name in entertainment, he’s not going to be a pro-entertainment-industry politician.”

Many Hollywood stars and executives were vocal backers of the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, lending her their endorsements and their pocketbooks after pushing for President Biden to withdraw from the race.

Some executives hedged their bets, though. Warner Bros. Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav demurred when asked this summer whom he supported for president, saying he preferred someone who would pave the way for more consolidation.

On Thursday, the Motion Picture Assn. trade group, which lobbies on behalf of the studios, congratulated Trump and the incoming Congress on their victories.

“We look forward to working with them on a wide range of important issues for the film, TV, and streaming industry, which supports more than 2.7 million American jobs, boosts more than 240,000 businesses in cities and small towns across the country, and delivers over $242 billion in wages to our workforce each year,” the group said in a statement.

Analysts were also concerned about the effect a potential tariff war could have on the entertainment industry.

If Trump follows through with his threats of global tariffs, nations like China could ban U.S. imports, including film and TV shows, which would dent the already-reeling distribution market, Galloway said. During Trump’s first term, the president’s trade war with China was partly blamed for derailing Hollywood’s relationship with the country.

The potential for retaliation could also be a problem, said Kevin Klowden, executive director of the Milken finance institute.

As a candidate, Trump railed against CBS and said he wanted the network’s broadcast license pulled for editing one of Harris’ answers during her interview on “60 Minutes.” The news program has flatly denied allegations of deceptive editing to help Harris.

That type of directive would likely get tied up in the courts, but “it’s the threat that becomes the issue,” Klowden said.

Films and TV shows that paint Trump in a negative light run the risk of drawing his ire, which could then affect their parent companies, Galloway said. Media and entertainment giants might be wary of the situation Walt Disney Co. found itself in after it battled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over the state’s so-called Don’t Say Gay anti-LGBTQ legislation.

Recently, the Trump biopic “The Apprentice” struggled to find a distributor after the former president’s team threatened legal action. The film fared poorly at the U.S. box office.

More conservative media, on the other hand, could see a boost in their stock, including the Murdoch family-owned News Corp., which publishes the New York Post, Wall Street Journal and Investor’s Business Daily, and Fox Corp., parent company of Trump’s favored Fox News.

“Back in the day, studios were little companies making movies,” Galloway said. “Now they’re cogs in enormous, multinational operations where one domino suddenly sends 50 others falling.”