Box office preview: ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator 2’ hit theaters

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” and Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” are expected to post gravity-defying numbers at the domestic box office this weekend.

On the heels of a solid summer (“Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine”) and a mildly disappointing fall (“Megalopolis,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”), the witches of Oz and the warriors of ancient Rome are joining forces to kick off the holiday movie season.

Each buoyed by star power, aggressive marketing and beloved intellectual property, “Gladiator II” is projected to launch somewhere between $65 million and $75 million, while “Wicked” is expected to conjure $120 million to $140 million in the United States and Canada, according to estimates from Boxoffice Pro.

Studio projections are lower, putting “Gladiator II” around $60 million and “Wicked” around $100 million.

“‘Wicked’ is the one that’s really moving up. ‘Gladiator II’ has been consistent,” said Daniel Loria, editorial director and senior vice president of content strategy at Boxoffice Pro.

“A lot of that is driven by a very healthy fan culture. This is a musical that has been around for a long time. People are familiar with it. I know musicals haven’t had the best track record at the box office, but ‘Wicked’ is the blockbuster musical of this generation.”

Theaters have been longing for a four-quadrant, double-feature moviegoing event since last year’s same-day release of Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” created the global “Barbenheimer” sensation. Movie houses and entertainment companies have increasingly come to rely on movies that become viral, must-see cultural phenomena, a trend that accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic scrambled audience behaviors and studio strategies.

“Wicked” and “Gladiator II” will be playing in thousands of theaters nationwide, with Disney’s highly anticipated “Moana 2” on the not-so-distant horizon, portending a much-needed period of healthy cinema attendance. Following multiple critical and commercial flops, morale is up among exhibitors betting on a strong end to 2024 and start to 2025.

A hat trick for “Gladiator II,” “Wicked” and “Moana 2” would be huge for the industry “coming off of the worst October of the post-pandemic era,” Loria said. Domestic box office so far this year is down 11% from the same span in 2023, and remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore.

“I’m not sure this Venn diagram is going to be as big as the one we had for ‘Barbenheimer,’” Loria added. “But it’s another example of this industry responding to consumer demands and responding to the need for diversity … at the multiplex.”

Directed by Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” tells the origin story of Glinda, the Good Witch of the North, and Elphaba, the Wicked Witch of the West, before Dorothy arrived in Munchkinland and followed the yellow brick road. The long-awaited reframing of “The Wizard of Oz” — based on the hit Broadway musical of the same name — stars pop phenom Ariana Grande as Glinda and Tony Award winner Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba.

Universal has gone all out to promote the production, which cost an estimated $150 million to produce, not including marketing. The 2-hour, 40-minute film only covers the first act of the stage musical. Part two arrives in theaters next year.

Unlike the marketing around other films in the genre — such as Paramount Pictures’ “Mean Girls” and Warner Bros.’ “Wonka” — the “Wicked” campaign has not downplayed its musical elements. On the contrary, Grande and Erivo’s renditions of fan-favorite songs, from “Popular” to “Defying Gravity,” have featured prominently in trailers and TV spots promoting the movie.

“You couldn’t hide it if you wanted to,” said a studio source who was not authorized to comment.

But the “Wicked” marketing machine goes way beyond the music.

Universal partnered with 400 brands worldwide — including Starbucks, Ulta Beauty, Bloomingdale’s and Lexus — to douse retail shelves in pink and green, the signature colors of the movie’s leading sorceresses. There are “Wicked”-themed shoes, clothes, phone cases, laptop sleeves, luggage, candles, makeup palettes, jewelry, cups, office supplies, backpacks and hairdryers.

At least one of the brand collaborations drew unwanted attention. Mattel’s line of Glinda and Elphaba dolls made headlines recently when customers noticed that the packaging included the web address for a porn site instead of the movie’s official landing page. The toy company quickly apologized for the gaffe, calling the misprint an “unfortunate error.”

Unfortunate errors and all, Universal certainly has made a massive effort to live up to its source material’s fame with its ubiquitous rollout.

“Whenever you have a marketing campaign that can go to your exercise bike, that can go to your supermarket, that can really exit the theater and permeate the culture — that’s when you know the studio has really pulled out all the stops,” Loria said. “I’m not sure I can name a movie since ‘Barbie’ that has done that.”

The marketing team behind “Gladiator II” — director Ridley Scott’s lega-sequel to his early-aughts best picture winner, starring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington — has pulled out a few tricks as well.

For example: a Colosseum-shaped popcorn bucket with a virtual-reality twist and a controversial deal with Airbnb to bring Medieval Times-esque entertainment to the actual Colosseum in Rome.

“Gladiator II” cost an estimated $250 million to make, not including marketing costs.

Exhibitors are joining in on the fun too.

Look Cinemas — a dine-in theater chain with locations in Downey, Glendale, Monrovia and Redlands — has curated a special “Wickedator” menu with themed food and beverage items ranging from Arena Nachos (“Gladiator”) to Emerald City Sours (“Wicked”).

James Meredith, head of marketing and revenue at Look Cinemas, said the company has been preparing for this weekend for months, reserving premium screening rooms for both films, hosting advance screenings as early as Wednesday and expanding its showtimes and hours of operation to meet consumer demand reminiscent of the “Barbenheimer” craze.

“Our guests want to come in and escape for a while and have a big event or celebration around some of these popular movies,” Meredith said. “These types of movies … remind customers of how special the moviegoing experience is.”