College Football Playoff rankings: Alabama, Clemson on outside looking in as Arizona State surges

Alabama dropped to No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night and Mississippi fell to No. 14, leaving the SEC with only three teams in the projected field of 12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State remained the top four in the rankings and Notre Dame moved up to No. 5. Miami (10-1) moved up to No. 6, Georgia (9-2) was No. 7, and Tennessee (9-2) is now No. 8, up three spots from last week.

No. 9 SMU moved into the bracket for the first time, giving the ACC two teams in the 12-team bracket alongside Miami.

Indiana (10-1) dropped five spots to No. 10 after losing to Ohio State, but stayed in the projected field.

“Indiana played well at times against Ohio State, and obviously Ohio State pulled away in the second half,” said committee chairman Ward Manuel, who is also Michigan’s athletic director. “We felt also SMU has been playing really dominant football as of late.”

The projected top-four seeds that go to conference champions and receive a bye in the first round also remained the same as last week: Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Miami (ACC) and No. 11 Boise State (Mountain West) are in those spots.

No. 12 Clemson (9-2), another ACC team, is currently the first team out of the bracket.

Another turbulent week in the Big 12 produced a new highest-ranked team from the conference, No. 16 Arizona State (9-2), which knocked off BYU last week. The Sun Devils would be the projected No. 12 seed. Next up in the Big 12 was No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU, No. 24 Kansas State and No. 25 Colorado.

Right behind the Sun Devils at No. 17 is Tulane, the highest-ranked team from the American Athletic Conference. The Green Wave has already clinched a spot in the AAC title game against Army, which fell out of the rankings after losing to Notre Dame.

No conference had a wilder week than the SEC, where three ranked teams — Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M — lost to unranked opponents on the road. The Aggies (8-3) dropped five spots to No. 20.

The Crimson Tide (8-3) and Rebels (8-3) are the first two SEC teams out of the field. Each faces an unranked in-state rival this weekend and are out of contention to win the SEC championship. Texas A&M hosts Texas on Saturday, with the winner facing Georgia in the SEC title game.

The other in-state rivalry game with playoff stakes on both sides is in South Carolina, where Clemson (9-2) hosts the 15th-ranked Gamecocks (8-3).

Guessing game

Maybe the most interesting answer Manuel provided in this week’s teleconference with reporters was about whether the committee will ever discuss which team would win a hypothetical matchup.

The short answer: No.

“If it starts to creep into the conversation, I make sure we cut it off. We don’t project,” Manuel said. “We don’t know. There has been, I said before, in the last two weeks, 14 teams in the Top 25 have lost. So it’s hard to predict if this team plays that team who will win? if this team plays that team who’s going to be favored by Vegas and the sports book? We can’t get into that because all we can deal with is what happens on the field of play. That’s the best way, the most fair way for us to assess the teams is by what happens on the field of play. We cannot get into projection.”

It just means … less?

When the committee started ranking teams the first week of November, it looked as if the SEC was a lock to get four teams in the field, and there was a real chance for five playoff teams.

Now, getting past three is going to take an upset or two, preferably in the ACC.

“We value winning. We value how the teams play and in the end, the scoreboard matters,” Manuel said.

SMU has locked up its spot in the ACC title game and Miami can join the Mustangs with a victory this weekend at Syracuse.

If SMU and Miami can each get to that title game in Charlotte, N.C., with only one loss, the conference appears to be in solid shape to have both make the Playoff.

If Miami were to lose this weekend, Clemson would go to the ACC championship game. Whether the Tigers go with two losses and a victory against South Carolina or three losses could also help determine if the SEC can get a fourth team into the bracket.

The Crimson Tide, which only missed the playoff twice in 10 years when it was four teams, seem to be the best bet to take advantage of any upsets. Alabama is higher ranked than Ole Miss and has a victory against South Carolina that could help it hold off the Gamecocks.

A wild card for the SEC could be Texas A&M. With the Aggies still in play to win the conference, they could be a bid-stealer. Though maybe the bid the Aggies steal will be from another SEC team, such as Tennessee?

G5 squeeze

For the second straight week, the Big 12 is chasing Boise State and outside a ranking that would secure a first-round bye.

Now the Big 12, which still has nine teams in contention to reach the conference title game, also has to watch its back.

With Tulane only one spot behind Arizona State, there is a chance the AAC champion could grab one of the five bids that go to conference champs and leave the Big 12 out altogether. Arizona State and Iowa State are the most likely championship game participants.

Catching up to Boise State without the Broncos losing might be difficult. Their most likely Mountain West championship game opponent, UNLV, is ranked No. 22 and has a couple of victories against Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas.

Holding off Tulane doesn’t seem quite as tough as long as the Big 12 champ comes from the current ranked teams.

The Green Wave play Thanksgiving night against Memphis (9-2), but with Army falling out of the rankings, they probably won’t get much of a bump from the AAC title game.

Tulane also has a loss at home in September to Kansas State, which could be a problem when matching up resumes with a Big 12 champion.

Required reading

(Photo: Brian Bahr / Getty Images)