College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: What will committee do with Alabama and Miami?

The College Football Playoff field is mostly set. The bubble isn’t very big, but the central debate heading into the conference championship games seems clear: Will the committee elect to place three-loss Alabama into the field ahead of two-loss Miami — or even SMU if the Mustangs lose the ACC title game against Clemson?

And if SMU loses, could three-loss SEC teams South Carolina and Ole Miss enter the conversation, too?

No. 6 Miami squandered its ACC title chances and the opportunity for a bye after losing 42-38 at Syracuse, its second loss in three games. The 10-2 Hurricanes might get a Top 25-win if Louisville sneaks into this week’s rankings, but that would be their only good win. No. 9 SMU, at 11-1, should be safe, but lack of precedent for conference title game losers could be cause to make the Ponies nervous if they fall.

Meanwhile, 9-3 Alabama, ranked 13th last week, has wins over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri, as well as a road win against LSU, which is no longer in the Top 25 but did go 8-4.

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The committee hasn’t put power conference teams with more losses ahead of those with fewer very often, but it’s happened. How far Miami falls will be one of the big questions when the penultimate rankings are released Tuesday.

And the Crimson Tide’s history, though it isn’t part of the criteria, tends to be a factor when the selection committee references the “eye test.” Just like last year, the committee will be faced between picking Alabama and an ACC team with a better record. It decided Alabama was better last year, albeit over a Florida State team that lost its starting quarterback to injury. Will it decide the same thing again?

Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.

Definitely in

The unbeaten Ducks are in no matter what and will be the No. 1 overall seed if they beat Penn State. They could lose 59-0, like 2014 Wisconsin against Ohio State, in their first-ever Big Ten title game and it still wouldn’t matter.

Texas beat rival Texas A&M in dominating fashion on Saturday to reach the SEC title game in its first year in the league. The Longhorns will be in the field without question and can earn a first-round bye by avenging their lone loss against Georgia.

Ohio State’s loss to Michigan thrust No. 4 Penn State into the Big Ten title game for the first time since 2016 and the second time ever, and the Nittany Lions are in the field win or lose. If they beat Oregon, they’ll have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed. If Texas loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, a win would give Penn State the No. 1 seed for sure.

The Irish aren’t in a conference so they can’t earn a bye but will host a first-round Playoff game after ripping off 10 straight wins — almost all of them dominant — after losing to Northern Illinois.

The Volunteers rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to beat Vanderbilt, and their regular season is complete. They won’t play again until the first weekend of the Playoff and are likely to host a first-round game.

The Buckeyes will have the most angst of any team in the Playoff field by far. A fourth consecutive loss to Michigan cost them an appearance in the Big Ten title game and an opportunity to play Oregon for the right to earn a first-round bye. The Buckeyes will still be in the field and could plausibly host a first-round game but more than likely will be on the road to open the 12-team event.

The Hoosiers looked unbothered after losing to Ohio State, routing rival Purdue 66-0 to earn the Old Oaken Bucket in the most lopsided result in the century-plus history of the rivalry. The 11-1 Hoosiers won’t play again until the Playoff and were No. 10 in last week’s rankings. They’ll likely be on the road to open but there’s no longer a path for them to fall out of the bracket.

Probably in

We don’t know how the committee will treat conference title game losers, especially those who earn a third loss. Texas, at 11-1, is in either way. Georgia is very likely in with a loss and would earn the bye with another win over Texas, but the Bulldogs needed a dramatic comeback and eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech. An ugly loss to Texas would give the committee real issues to ponder regarding the candidacy of Kirby Smart’s team.

The 11-1 Mustangs would get a nice boost if Louisville crashed the CFP Top 25 again after thrashing Kentucky 41-14. If not, SMU won’t have a Top 25 win and would be sitting at 11-2 with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Could a lopsided loss introduce the possibility for exclusion? Bubble teams are cheering for the Ponies in Charlotte, N.C., so Clemson doesn’t steal a bid.

Can play their way in

Tulane’s Thanksgiving night loss essentially eliminated the AAC from Playoff contention. Both Boise State and UNLV are ranked, and the winner of Friday’s Mountain West title game will advance to the Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. Boise State, at No. 11 last week and ahead of the Big 12 title game finalists Iowa State and Arizona State, has an opportunity to earn a first-round bye. It’s almost certain the Broncos, though, would not get an at-large bid with a loss to the Rebels.

Neither the Sun Devils nor the Cyclones can make the Playoff as an at-large candidate, but both were ranked in the top 20 last week, and a big win or a Boise State loss could slide them ahead of the Broncos to earn a first-round bye. The odds are against it, but it’s possible. Either way, the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas, is a literal play-in game for the CFP.

Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord tweeted “You’re welcome” to Clemson on Saturday. Orange coach Fran Brown even FaceTimed Dabo Swinney to say the same. It’s accurate. Syracuse rallying from down 21-0 to beat Miami cleared the way for Clemson to play its way into the field with a win over SMU, despite the Tigers taking a third loss against rival South Carolina. The Tigers don’t have a win over a Top-25 opponent this year, but it won’t matter. The ACC champion will be in the field, and Clemson will have a chance to claim that crown for the eighth time since 2015.

Still hoping

Bama has big wins but its losses came against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, along with Tennessee. It finished with a win over Auburn, while Miami fell to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in two of its final three games.

There isn’t a massive amount of chaos possible heading into conference championship weekend, but the Gamecocks and Rebels are first in line if the field stretches beyond Alabama, SMU and Miami. It’s a fascinating debate.

South Carolina has won six consecutive games, and half of those came against teams in the Top 25. The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country. But they have three losses. And one of them came at home by 24 points to an Ole Miss team that has just one other Top 25 win. That one win came by 18 points against Georgia, which is playing for the SEC title.

The coaches have already started politicking for the pole position if enough teams slip up and bring them into the conversation.

“It’s hard for me to sit there and say that we’re not one of the 12 best teams in the country,” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said after defeating Clemson.

⁦@CFBPlayoff⁩ pic.twitter.com/U39OUZrOmM

— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) December 1, 2024

Said Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin: “South Carolina jumping us? Why do we even play the games? We have the same record in the same conference. We went to their place and ran them out of their place.”

Good luck sorting that out if it comes to it, committee.