Bitcoin near $100,000 but strategists are divided

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

European markets closed higher
U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Friday. South Korean markets led declines, with the Kospi index dropping 1.88%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost roughly 0.5% as investors assessed Tokyo’s 2.6% inflation rate in November. Bucking the trend, China’s CSI 300 rose around 1.2%.

Tighter tungsten export control by China
China will start limiting exports of tungsten this weekend, as part of measures that control the flow of goods that can be used for both military and civilian purposes. It’s a stark reversal of the past decades, when China controlled 80% of the tungsten supply chain, according to Argus. To make up for the drop in supply, companies are looking to open or resume production in tungsten mines.

Looser chip export ban by U.S.
Shares of global semiconductor suppliers, such as ASML and Tokyo Electron, jumped on Thursday on reports that the U.S. might implement export restrictions that are less strict than expected. The report stated that the U.S. is considering adding fewer of Huawei’s suppliers to an export blacklist.

NewJeans wants to divorce from Hybe sublabel
Hybe, South Korea’s largest K-pop agency, lost over $423 million in market capitalization after shares plunged as much as 6.97% on Friday. It was triggered by popular girl group NewJeans’ announcement that it was ending its contract with Hybe sublabel Ador because of an alleged breach of contract.

[PRO] Hedging against possible tariffs
The European Union runs a 158 billion euro ($165.6 billion) trade surplus with the U.S. That could put it on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s radar for tariffs. To prepare for that possibility, investors should address their “tariff risk” and look toward defensive plays, according to Davide Oneglia, director of European and global macro at TS Lombard.

Bitcoin danced seductively close to the $100,000 level this week — at its highest, it was less than $1,000 away — but that psychological peak was out of reach for the cryptocurrency. It retreated to as low as $90,702.27 on Tuesday, before stirring itself up to trade at around $96,150 today.

One reason it fell was that investors cashed in on bitcoin’s unprecedentedly high price, increasing the supply of bitcoin. “Long-term holders have started to distribute significant amounts of bitcoins into the recent rally,” Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at crypto-focused asset management firm Bitwise, wrote in a research note shared Monday.

But there are more fundamental reasons some strategists aren’t sure bitcoin can muster enough strength to touch the six-digit milestone.

The $100,000 mark “feels as if it has become a high hurdle, if not a barrier, for further gains,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Trade Nation.

In fact, bitcoin’s recent surge might be giving investors a false sense of security, according to George Milling-Stanley, State Street Global Advisors’ chief gold strategist. “Bitcoin, pure and simple, it’s a return play,” said Milling-Stanley, which suggests that investors are piling into bitcoin to reap capital gains and not because they see value or use in the cryptocurrency.

The launch of options on spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week might have something to do with that. Options allow investors to deploy less cash to bet on bitcoin’s price movements, rather than buying a portion of bitcoin itself.

Indeed, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, a longtime crypto investor, told CNBC that “the crypto community is levered to the gills, and so there will be a correction.”

That said, a correction isn’t a permanent deflation. And if just a fraction of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to the crypto industry are realized, the $100,000 price level may not be a ceiling, but just another rung that bitcoin passes on its celebratory climb upward.

— CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel, Ryan Browne, MacKenzie Sigalos and Krysta Escobar contributed to this report.