Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales expected to break records

The weekend that stretches from Black Friday to Cyber Monday is expected to break records this year as inflation-battered shoppers waiting for deals take advantage of sales online and in stores.

US retail sales are expected to reach a record-breaking $75 billion in the period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, according to Bain’s Black Friday Forecast.

That estimate represents 5% retail sales growth from the same period in 2023 – outpacing the 2.5% to 3.5% growth expected for the entire holiday shopping season, according to the National Retail Federation.

The busy Thanksgiving weekend will likely account for 8% of total holiday sales – its highest share since 2019, according to Bain.

Consumers, hit hard by stubbornly high prices, have pulled back on discretionary spending to deal with hefty everyday costs – but experts predict robust sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday since shoppers have been waiting for massive discounts and deals to splurge.

“I think people are waiting for those good deals,” R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, told The Post. “People are willing to spend around large holidays and events, but typically a lot closer to the holiday. It’s those periods in between that people have shown a little more reluctance to spend.”

More than half of US consumers plan to shop during at least one of the major sale days, according to Numerator.

Americans have grown frustrated with high price tags on their everyday purchases, shying away from dining out and luxury goods as these sectors hiked their prices due to inflation.

“In general, people are nervous about their finances,” Erica Sandberg, a personal finance expert who has worked for BankRate and Credit Card Guide, told The Post.

“Inflation is still eating into their normal household budgets, which constricts spending on non-essentials. Credit card debt is at record levels, too, and with interest rates high, there is less money is available for extra spending.”

The “perception of saving” will be a huge factor in winning over price-sensitive consumers – and could even revive the days of crowded door-buster sales, Hottovy told The Post.

“There are a couple economic conditions that could impact consumer spending playing out already. The consumer is feeling positive about the election and what’s to come, the markets are doing well and inflation is coming down,” Hitha Herzog, chief retail analyst at H Squared Research and part-time faculty at Parsons School of Design, told The Post. 

The last thing retailers need for a blockbuster spending year is good weather, Herzog said.

But more than a quarter of consumers plan to use the shopping holidays to save on everyday items, like groceries and household goods – another sign that Americans are still feeling pain from persistent inflation, according to Numerator.

“It would not surprise me to see that more consumers are buying essentials this holiday,” Hottovy said. “It’s a tough environment – it’s insurance, it’s rent and other things.”

Online shopping will likely continue to be a popular trend among consumers. Last year was the first time that more than half of US households made an online purchase during Thanksgiving weekend, and experts expect similar findings this year, according to Numerator.

“Retailers like Amazon and Walmart are dominating when it comes to pricing,” Herzog told The Post. “Black Friday and Cyber Monday will always have promotions around necessities. Customers will take advantage of these promotions to stock up.”