Giannis should stay with Bucks. But his case is first test in how NBA’s new rules impact stars

Giannis Antetokounmpo should stay in Milwaukee.

Making that clear up front. This is not a longtime Warriors writer once again pondering a future with the Greek Freak as the new pillar of Golden State, one of the NBA’s it brands. I’ll leave that to Warriors owner Joe Lacob.

And maybe Stephen Curry.

And maybe Giannis.

OK, seriously. Antetokounmpo belongs in Milwaukee, to Milwaukee. The sappy side of sports, the romantic 30,000-foot view demands him staying with the Bucks, where he became a legend. The Chick-Fil-A where he ordered a 50-piece chicken nuggets should become a state landmark.

Mushy moments, however, are about past accolades. The Bucks, featuring the all-time great in his prime, rightfully want more than the 2021 Larry O’Brien Trophy they earned. But what’s emanating from their current on-court play suggests a pending impasse.

The big swing Milwaukee took just last season to get a superstar, trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard, is being revealed as a miss — at least in the sense of its championship aspirations. Like a giant puzzle that hasn’t finished forming, we can see enough to imagine the end picture.

Of course, being wrong is possible. The Bucks could turn this around. While they sit at the bottom, they’ve played the best in the Eastern Conference close enough to warrant optimism.

But, frankly, my deer, this feels like a problem Khris Middleton’s return can’t fix.

The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers look like juggernauts comparatively, and the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are threats in the East despite their mediocre starts. And Bucks fans would be wise not to look West right now. It’s scary out that way.

The Bucks are 2-8 through their first 10 games, disappointing enough to trigger the discourse about what they should do. And while nothing from Giannis suggests he wants out — and his new three-year, $175 million extension kicks in next year — he’s the mega figure the rest of the league is watching. The player who can shift the dynamic of the league. Naturally, people will be interested in whether a fourth consecutive season not making it past the second round prompts big changes in Milwaukee.

All of this points to a possible moment of truth for the Bucks, and Antetokounmpo, for which we wait to see how the league’s new climate and culture impact their decision. The NBA’s pursuit of parity altered the landscape of team-building. So it’s only reasonable for it to also alter the mindset of how married front offices are to their superstars.

How he and the Bucks respond could be informative. Turning 30 next month, he’s the oldest of the young superstars. He’s also the one who seems among the furthest from a championship.

Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.

The same questions figure to eventually arrive about Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jayson Tatum. Or Duke’s Cooper Flagg. Or Utah Prep’s A.J. Dybantsa.

The collective bargaining agreement doesn’t have protections for drafting well, which means teams that do are counting down to when they have to pay. Welcome to Sam Presti’s life. It seems executives, players and fans should be emotionally prepared for stars to be sacrificed in the name of the CBA.

Obviously, it all depends on the situation. The stars’ accomplishments. The ownership’s financial capacity. The roster’s flexibility.

The obvious answer is for the Bucks to retool around Antetokounmpo. With the increased longevity of superstars, and the way he takes care of himself, he should have at least five to six years of eliteness in him. Maybe more.

But it’s also easier than ever, figuratively, to move on and still turn out just fine. Parity’s impact makes it more feasible, figuratively, for teams to retool quickly. With no impossible juggernaut sitting atop the league — the closest one is Boston, which is facing a similar pending money crunch — the climb to the top is shorter. The punishment for having three maximum salaries increases the possibility of star-caliber players being available or coming to market.

Hard-line stances are easier for teams to take these days. Jimmy Butler does not have a max extension in Miami despite being the face of the franchise. Paul George is in Philadelphia, and his former team doesn’t look worse long-term as a result.

GO DEEPER

The Clippers don’t regret saying goodbye to Paul George, and no to the Warriors

The salary explosion surely makes ownership take a longer, harder look. Is that No. 2 star really worth $40 million? Is the No. 1 really worth $60 million?

Those figures won’t look quite as massive when the new television deal raises the salary cap. But the sticker shock will still be present for the check-signers.

At some point, having such an albatross figure eating up so much of the salary cap makes maneuvering tough. The Jazz considered moving on from Lauri Markkanen before locking him for $48 million a year over the next four. The Suns will have three players making over $50 million next season, putting some real championship pressure on Phoenix right now as the penalties for crossing the second apron loom.

This climate wouldn’t figure to make loyalty as appealing. Lillard is a cautionary tale of being loyal to a fault. He spent years of his prime on a Portland Trail Blazers squad that didn’t have a real chance at a title. Could he have a title if he was in Miami in 2023 when it faced the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals? We’ll never know because he was still ride-or-die for Portland.

Market size is less relevant in the modern media climate. The salary suppression of the new CBA makes staying home less profitable. The league has intentionally increased the number of teams on the cusp of being serious. It’s a concoction sure to fertilize other grasses.

How long before Joel Embiid wants a fresh start? How long will Ja Morant settle for being second fiddle with the grit and grind if the Grizzlies don’t build a winner around him?

Taking away the sentimentality, and keeping it strictly basketball maneuvering — is it better for the Bucks to send their pillar to Oklahoma City, which by far and away could offer the biggest bounty of any team? No one could blame Antetokounmpo for wanting that.

Because what’s also true about the age of parity is the ease of falling behind. Hopes for a ‘ship can sail away as quickly as they dock when the league can rearrange so fluidly. The right role player can lift a team into the mix, let alone an All-Star. How many teams could change their odds by adding Butler?

GO DEEPER

The T.J. McConnell paradigm: How the sunset of NBA super teams led to the rise of role players

Conversely, a team that looked on the come-up can suddenly seem far away. It was but two years ago Sacramento and Memphis looked to be the future.

It is early, but it looks as if Milwaukee is drifting behind. It’s always risky to make conclusions when Halloween candy yet remains (albeit the candy corn no one actually likes). Especially for a team missing a player as good as Middleton. But seasons have vibes. Tones are set. Patterns start developing. Antetokounmpo has already called out the team’s effort.

One of the tells of chemistry and cohesion is fourth-quarter production. And late in games, Milwaukee has looked like it’s staying together until the kids graduate high school.

Entering Monday, the Bucks were 25th in fourth-quarter scoring (26.2) and second-to-last in fourth-quarter offensive rating (105.6). Milwaukee has the fourth-worst offensive efficiency in the clutch, averaging just 89.3 points per 100 per possessions of clutch time. Only the Chicago Bulls, Knicks and Thunder were worse — and Oklahoma City was so low because it’s usually chilling in fourth quarters.

If the conclusion is Dame and Giannis aren’t the takeover-the-league duo we thought they’d be, I was certain they’d be, what is the Bucks’ next move?

Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.

Because the inverse is also true. If it’s easier to rebuild in a league that frowns on hoarding superstars, it figures to be even easier with an anchor in place. The hardest piece to get is the biggest one.

What’s more, we’ve seen this place where the NBA could be headed. All markets being in play now, with the superstars spread more evenly across the league, the player movement could turn up. A Game of Thronesian shifting of power.

While that for sure adds an element of excitement, the league constantly reforming its contender class, jerseys expiring faster than whole milk, sentimentality takes on its own value. Having a franchise pillar becomes more meaningful.

And since this is a business, still fueled by the magnetism of superstars, something will always be special about the players who ride it out with one home.

Sure, they might miss out on all-time great conversations, their trophy collections limited by their team’s resources and front-office acumen. But they are among the most adored, most respected.

Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)