Global equity returns disappearing as U.S. stock market rockets higher
The U.S. stock market has been having a party for most of November, but it hasn’t invited the rest of the world to join the fun. As the market turned mixed following early losses Tuesday, the S & P 500 and other major averages have posted solid gains during the month. The large-cap benchmark is up more than 3% in November, rallying around the presidential election that sent Donald Trump back to the White House for a second term. However, the U.S. market hasn’t been spreading the love. Global stocks have largely fallen as the U.S. has rallied, the result of a confluence of factors. “Non-US stocks’ [year-to-date] dollar-based returns have gone from respectable to terrible in just 7 weeks, partly due to currency and partly from underperforming local markets,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in his daily market note Monday evening. “No major single-country equity index has offered a productive hiding place from Q4’s rest of world sell off.” The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) serves as an effective proxy for the trend. The fund gauges how global stocks minus U.S. equities are performing, and it features names such as Taiwan Semiconductor , Tencent and Novo Nordisk . ACWX .SPX 3M line International vs. domestic stocks ACWX has slid 1.7% in November and is now up just 5% year to date. The fund fell about 0.2% in morning trade Tuesday, underperforming the S & P 500 . The broad market index was marginally higher on the day and has soared nearly 24% year to date. One culprit has been U.S. dollar outperformance against its global counterparts. The dollar index has jumped more than 2% in November, and has climbed nearly 5% year to date. A strong greenback reduces the value of assets owned in foreign currency and makes American exports more expensive in other countries. That also can harm global companies domiciled in the U.S., but thus far hasn’t had a major impact. .DXY 3M line Dollar index The underperformance of global stocks might provide some temptation to dive in at a time when they appear undervalued. But Colas cautioned against that, given Trump’s intention to launch another round of protectionist trade policies . “We continue to prefer US equities over rest of world stocks, even as the latter’s remarkable underperformance this year makes them statistically cheaper and non-US currencies are probably due for a bounce soon,” he wrote. “US government policy will be materially different next year from the last 4 years, and it will be difficult for global asset owners to justify incremental allocations to international equity markets until we know exactly how different it is,” Colas added.