Juan Soto sweepstakes expected to hit $700 million

Bidding in the Juan Soto Derby is expected to hit baseball’s magic $700 million mark, with the heated competition that still pits five big-market teams and includes the Mets and incumbent Yankees nearing an historic end.

At least four teams — Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays — are thought to be at least in range of that record MLB figure, previously attained by only international superstar Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani’s World Champion Dodgers, interestingly enough, are the one of five finalists believed behind in the bidding (but apparently not eliminated due to other obvious positives).

Soto’s goal going into the big winter sweepstakes was to identify a consistent winner who’d pay what he’s worth, which is turning out to be a lot, at least in the eyes of baseball’s key decisionmakers. It isn’t believed any team has separated itself financially yet, which is making the decision difficult. Plus, altered offers were said within the last day or two still to be coming in, which can complicate matters.

Soto is known to be patient, anyway (see his at-bats), and with all four high bidders carrying strong positives but also some negatives, it shouldn’t be a surprise he’s carefully weighing a decision that could affect his next 15 years (although there will presumably be at least one opt-out no matter where he goes). In the meantime, fans and even high-ranking executives are growing anxious, mostly about Soto but also about how they may pivot should he go elsewhere. Once he signs, expect a flurry of activity at the Winter Meetings, which unofficially begin Sunday.

Some may wonder how Soto, as great a hitter as he is, is going to outdo the uniquely amazing Ohtani, whose record-setting $700M deal is valued by MLB people between $437M and $470M, figuring his unprecedented $680M in deferred monies. But consider that Soto, who turned 26 the day of Game 1 of the World Series vs. the Dodgers, is four years younger than Ohtani was as a free agent.

The other factor is that Soto doesn’t appear to have geographic preferences affecting his market, as seems to have been the case with Ohtani, whose other top choice besides the Dodgers was the incumbent Angels. Soto already has played for three teams, with only one year in The Bronx, albeit a generally happy and productive one with him posting a .989 OPS and the Yankees reaching the World Series for the first time in 15 years. Despite old rumors he prefers the East Coast, friends say he very much enjoyed San Diego, as well.

The American League champion Yankees possess the best current roster of the four high bidders, and that surely plays in their favor. But Soto did reportedly have questions about their farm system at their meeting, which was a generally very positive gathering. That would seem like a minor consideration for a team that’s posted only winning seasons since 1993, but it’s his call and he’s looking into the future.

While the Mets, runners-up in the National League, are clearly on the upswing, and deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen gives them all sorts of possibilities, their current roster could be a bit of a question. With so many key free agents either gone (Luis Severino) or unsigned (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana), their team looks unfinished.

The Red Sox at their meeting stressed their excellent prospect list, their history of Dominican stars (including Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz) and the excellent Fenway fit for Soto’s patented opposite-field drives. But they have to deal with the fact they have finished last in three recent seasons.

The Blue Jays, who like the Mets carry the potential to be uber-aggressive in bidding, look like a much better team on paper than they showed in 2024. But their two big stars, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, are free agents after 2025, so their future may look less assured than that of the Yankees, Mets and surely Dodgers.

Then there’s the wild card in this derby, the Dodgers, who have the best MLB roster and look very well positioned to dominate in coming years. That’s thanks to a stacked pitching staff, a versatile and star-studded positional group and especially Ohtani, maybe baseball’s most versatile player, whose $68M in annual deferrals allows them to do almost anything they want.

The Dodgers are also hoping to add superstar Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki and re-sign star outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. The potential of joining what looks a super team is surely what’s keeping them in a derby where the other four teams understandably all seem more motivated.