Knowledge and research trumps ready-made projection systems
Proper research and analysis of data is imperative when setting your fantasy football lineups.
Is your running back an efficient runner, and how does he match up against the run defense he is facing?
Do your wide receivers thrive more in man coverage or zone, and what kind of defensive coverage packages do their opponents typically run?
Whether you do the research on your own or use a subscription-based website to help interpret the data for you, having this knowledge is key.
Yet every week we continue to see fantasy managers mistakenly evaluate their team and make lineup decisions based solely off their host website’s projections.
Some might say it’s lazy analysis, but should it even be called analysis? Probably not.
To pull the curtain back and reveal the wizard, site projections are flawed.
Each site has its own algorithm that calculates the projections based on statistical data taken from the player’s historical numbers, recent performances and defensive statistics posted by the opposition.
Unfortunately, that data fails to account for things like injuries suffered in a game, the lack of historical data for rookies, or things like coaching and scheme changes.
For example, one site has Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb projected at 16.2 fantasy points for Week 12 against Washington.
The projection is clearly calculated from Lambs’s history against Washington and what the Commanders have allowed in production to opposing No. 1 wideouts.
What they have failed to include is Lamb’s lack of production with Cooper Rush under center.
In fact, Lamb has averaged just 13.7 fantasy points in full-point PPR formats over the past three games and is missing practices with a back issue.
Another website had Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt projected for just 3.26 fantasy points against the Panthers, the team with the worst run defense in the league.
Why was he projected for so few points? Because the site had calculated his projections based on the inclusion of Isiah Pacheco, which dramatically reduces the number of carries Hunt is expected to have.
Was it accurate? Absolutely not.
Pacheco was ruled out on Friday, leaving Hunt as the starting running back.
What happens when he isn’t activated? Those who benched Hunt based off the site’s projections will undoubtedly suffer.
Betting on the NFL?
This isn’t an attempt to bash website’s projections. It is merely a warning against making lineup decisions based off those numbers.
Don’t think you need to use only high-upside players because the site projects you to lose.
Have an understanding as to where these numbers are coming from, and question the data at all times.
Winning your fantasy football game is not as cut-and-dried as picking the player with the highest projection.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football news and advice.