Thanksgiving dinner is historically affordable this year

You may not know it by looking at sticker prices in grocery aisles, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.

The costs of this year’s holiday feast — estimated at $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 a head — dropped 5% since last year, the lowest level since 2021, according to a nationwide survey of grocery prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of U.S. farmers. But the picture improves further when adjusted for inflation.

“If your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984 … this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, other than the outlier of 2020,” the authors wrote.

For plenty of households, it doesn’t feel that way.

A defining feature of the post-pandemic recovery, and the 2024 election, is the divergence between Americans’ sour views of the economy and its underlying strength. Many shoppers understandably focus on price levels — the dollar value of the things they buy — rather than those purchases’ inflation-adjusted, or “real,” costs. The latter is the true test of affordability, since it reflects an often underappreciated piece of the inflation puzzle: wage inflation.

And indeed, while Thanksgiving food prices are up 19% since 2019, according to the AFBF, federal data shows median household wages growing by about 25% during the same period.

What’s more, “the average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years,” the report added. “Wages continued to grow faster following the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. Because average wages rose 4% from 2023 to 2024, it took 9% less work time for us to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

Of course, pay gains haven’t boosted all workers evenly, and long-term expenses like housing costs and child care continue to squeeze families up and down the income spectrum. While consumer confidence has jumped in recent weeks, it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Still, the AFBF report said, “even with the decreasing purchasing power of the dollar, some of the goods in our basket are at their long-term lowest prices, even in terms of the ‘current dollar’ price.”

Turkey, for instance, is 6% cheaper than last year, despite bird flu knocking out a portion of turkey inventories. Tighter availability usually drives up prices, but Americans are eating about 1 pound less of turkey per person each year, reducing demand by more than enough to offset the supply hit.

Certain processed foods that may land on Thanksgiving tables are more expensive. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing are each selling for 8% more than a year ago. On the flip side, sweet potatoes and whole milk have seen the steepest annual price drops, falling 26% and 14%, respectively. While fresh cranberry prices have climbed 12%, reversing an 18% decline the year before, they remain at their lowest level since 2015 — and when adjusted for inflation, they’re on par with prices back in 1987, the report said.

These affordability gains are good news for inflation-weary shoppers, many of whom are increasingly focused on value this year. Major consumer brands have been chasing bargain-hungry customers with price cuts and promotions for months. Some, such as Walmart and TJ Maxx, are seeing greater success than others, like Target.

The wave of discounting has become more competitive heading into the holidays, and grocery retailers are no exception. Food eaten at home was just 1.1% pricier last month than the same time last year, compared with the 2.6% average run-up in consumer prices overall.

Both Target and Aldi have rolled out Thanksgiving deals priced lower than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal for four, including a small turkey, canned vegetables and stovetop stuffing mix. Aldi has a $47 meal package for 10 people, which it’s advertising as lower than its 2019 prices. Walmart is promoting an “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal of 29 items that can serve eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh is offering Thanksgiving discounts on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six people for less than $5 apiece, plus extra savings for Prime members.

The flurry of promotions creates plenty of opportunities to comparison shop, experts say.

“I would just advise consumers to take a look at what those meals are comprised of,” said Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to check out multiple retailers.”

Some Thanksgiving meal packages offer more ingredients, but that could mean preparing more dishes from scratch. Others have fewer items but require less prep work. “Thanksgiving in many families is so personal,” Wenzel said, and the range of offers allows consumers to tailor their grocery shopping to their gatherings.

One cost-saving strategy is to buy stores’ own “private label” brands, which can save shoppers $17 on a Thanksgiving menu for 10, according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Experts at Consumer Reports also recommend enrolling in supermarket loyalty and cash-back programs for extra savings, which often come with conveniences such as virtual coupons within the stores’ apps.

Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner will also depend on geography. Households in the West, the priciest region for the holiday’s groceries, will spend about 18% more on average than those living in the South, where they’re cheapest, the AFBF estimates.