Why Under in Army-Navy may not be shoo-in bettors are accustomed to

For sports gamblers, the Army-Navy game is as synonymous with betting the under as it is with the signature pageantry. The throwback offenses have generated betting trends that inevitably induce fun conversations and gut-wrenching finishes.

The under is 16-1-1 over the past 18 and it could easily be 18-0, if not for two recent bad beats. 

In years past, I have routinely bet the under because there was a fundamental advantage for this annual December matchup. The over/under odds were based on statistics and results from the entire season. However, due to the triple option offenses, those numbers were skewed because games between service academies are vastly different than games involving only one service academy.

Specifically, a regular opponent in October and November will struggle with gap assignments and discipline facing Army or Navy’s misdirection because it is only accustomed to facing spread offenses. Cramming for the triple option in one week is extremely difficult and unrealistic.

However, when Army faces Navy, the defenses are more familiar with the opposing team’s offense because they face it all season in practice. Thus, it creates betting value with unders. The stats from previous games do not really apply…until now.

I am actually betting over 39.5 because it’s a new era for both schools. Navy’s first-year offensive coordinator has added more versatility with shotgun formations and run-pass options. Army has incorporated more motion and misdirection, which has created more explosive plays.

Each team ranks in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and no longer relies on ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’. Simply, service academy defenses no longer have a competitive advantage that previous, non-service academy opponents lacked. Army and Navy are a combined 14-9 to the over this season and that trend should continue.

The 22nd-ranked Black Knights are six-point favorites, as the game shifts to Landover, Maryland for just the second time in the rivalry’s 125-year history. Army is clearly the better team by all metrics and common opponents, having gone undefeated in conference play and winning the title game. However, does that come at a cost?

“Navy is well-rested, having two byes over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Army has had to face a gauntlet with Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium, a hard-fought close game against UTSA and then the American championship game win over a solid Tulane squad,” professional bettor Chris Macero told Only Players. “The emotions were high during the victory celebration. In a rivalry like no other, you need to grab the points in this spot.”

Betting on College Football?

That betting angle makes sense and the situational handicapping analysis is why sharp bettors have earned their stripes. I lean to the underdog but I think we have a great opportunity with over 39.5.